How New Coffee Tariffs Could Change Your Morning Cup Forever

Price hikes, bean shortages, and quality drops — what every coffee lover needs to know about the new 2025 tariffs.

Coffee Tariff

Imagine waking up one morning to find your favorite coffee shop closed, your go-to bag of beans twice the price, and your morning cup tasting... different.

That’s not a far-off nightmare — it’s a very real possibility looming on the horizon as new international tariffs threaten to upend the entire coffee industry. From independent third-wave cafés to big-box coffee brands to home brewers, no one is safe from what’s coming next.

The effects won’t just be felt by roasters and baristas — they’ll land squarely in your morning cup.

Here's what’s coming — and how you can stay ahead:

Tip #1 - Coffee Prices Are Set to Spike

Higher tariffs mean higher costs for the raw beans that fuel your favorite coffee brands.Whether you're buying a $6 pour-over at your local café or stocking up on beans for home brewing, expect to pay more — possibly a lot more — by late 2025 and into 2026.

Third wave shops that focus on direct-trade and ethically sourced beans will be hit the hardest, because they typically rely on smaller farms that can’t absorb the extra costs.

Tip #2 - Quality May Drop Across the Board

To avoid raising prices too high, many companies — yes, even big names you trust — may quietly lower bean quality.

You might not notice it at first: a slightly less vibrant cup, a little less complexity in flavor. But over time, quality erosion will become harder to ignore.

Third-wave cafés will struggle to maintain their standards without raising prices dramatically.Big box brands may start blending lower-grade beans into your favorite blends to maintain profit margins.

Man disgusted by coffee

Smallholder farmers already live on razor-thin margins. Tariffs could push many of them out of coffee entirely..." — Michael Sheridan, Intelligentsia Coffee

Tip #3 - Home Brewers Will Feel the Squeeze Too

Even if you make every cup at home, you're not immune.Retail prices for good-quality beans will rise — especially for specialty coffee from regions like Ethiopia, Colombia, and Guatemala.

We could also see limited availability of certain origins as smaller farms get priced out of the global market altogether.

In short: You might be paying more for less variety and lower quality.

Tip #4 - Small Shops Could Struggle — or Shut Down

Independent cafés — already battling rising rent, labor costs, and inflation — are at serious risk.

Many will face tough choices:

• Charge $10+ for a latte (and risk losing customers)

• Switch to cheaper beans (and risk losing loyalty)

• Or close their doors altogether

If you love your local coffee shop, now’s the time to start supporting them harder than ever.

Empty Coffee Shop

Tip #5 - There’s Still a Way to Stay Ahead

The good news? You can protect your coffee experience — if you act early:

• Lock in loyalty programs or bean subscriptions with your favorite shops or roasters before prices surge.

• Start home brewing smarter — invest in better equipment now before demand (and prices) skyrocket.

• Support ethical roasters who are working directly with farmers to offset some of these challenges.

The coffee world is shifting fast. Those who pay attention today will be the ones still enjoying amazing coffee tomorrow.

Coffee isn’t just a drink — it’s a global connection between farmers, roasters, shop owners, and everyday people who start their mornings with hope in a cup.

As tariffs threaten to reshape this connection, we’re faced with a choice: watch passively as quality declines and prices surge — or act now to protect the future of coffee we love.

The next wave of change is coming. Those who prepare will keep their cups full. Those who don’t may find their favorite brews slipping away.

Take the first step. Book a free consultation https://calendly.com/baristasource/15min today and learn how to BaristaSource can help you make informed choices as the industry evolves.